Mythic Championship VII Top 8 Preview and Predictions
Mythic Championship VII Top 8 Preview and Predictions
A star studded top 8 is set to show down in Longbeach just a few hours from now, with the winner walking away with $100,000 and a trip to Worlds in early 2020.
For some reason Wizards has not posted an official bracket graphic, but assuming the format is the same as the last two Arena MC's this is how the bracket will look!
This Mythic Championship has been by far the best in recent memory, with the combination of more diversity and MPL/Worlds spots on the line increasing the level of intensity dramatically. The top 8 could also not get much better, with 6 members of the MPL, and two of the biggest challengers immaginable. Chris Kvartek has had an incredible 2019, and through his performance has locked up an MPL spot for next year, while Miguel Da Cruz Simoes has locked up a spot in Rivals. Simoes may not be as big of a name as Kvartek, but he has had a similar 2019. He has qualified for the last two Arena MC's via the MCQW, and also participated in MCVI in Richmond. In MCV, Simoes stole the hearts and minds of the world before the tournament with his Rakdos Sacrifice deck (the only one in the field), but unfortunately flamed out of that tournament with an 0-4 record. Going 0-4 to top 8 is pretty good though, and hopefully he should start recieving that Chris Kvartek level hype after today.
Probably the biggest story of the tournament however has been Seth Manfield's Simic Flash deck, also played by Brad Nelson and Javier Dominguez.
Simic Flash by Brad Nelson
Main 60 cards (18 distinct)
Lands - 26
Side 15 cards (9 distinct)
Main 60 cards (18 distinct)
Lands - 26
Side 15 cards (9 distinct)
Main 60 cards (18 distinct)
| Creature (15) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.55€0.310.02 | |||
| $0.25€0.190.03 | |||
| $1.04€1.100.06 | |||
| $0.24€0.110.03 | |||
| $4.008.86 | |||
| Instant, Sorcery, Enchantment, Artifact (15) | |||
| $0.22€0.140.03 | |||
|
3
Quench
|
$0.15€0.040.03 | ||
|
1
Negate
|
$0.25€0.090.04 | ||
| $0.40€0.430.18 | |||
| $0.30€0.270.03 | |||
| $0.27€0.220.04 | |||
| Planeswalker (4) | |||
| $3.75€2.440.02 | |||
| Land (26) | |||
| $0.39€0.230.02 | |||
|
7
Island
|
|||
|
7
Forest
|
|||
| $5.54€4.180.15 | |||
| $0.52€0.600.02 | |||
| $16.43€15.090.17 | |||
Side 15 cards (9 distinct)
| $0.250.02 | |||
| $1.04€1.100.06 | |||
| $0.40€0.430.18 | |||
| $1.49€0.880.03 | |||
| $0.20€0.020.06 | |||
| $0.25€0.130.03 | |||
| $0.27€0.220.04 | |||
| $0.28€0.130.02 | |||
|
1
Negate
|
$0.25€0.090.04 |
The story goes that during testing they were deciding between this deck and Jeskai Fires, and Seth Manfield said that he was just going to play the Simic Deck because he wanted too. Eventually, Javier and Brad were convinced, and obviously made the correct decision as all of them made a top 8. Yes it does help that the 3 of them are some of the best players in the world, but a whole testing team making a top 8 with a "rogue" deck is a remarkable accomplishment. This deck is most tuned to beat Jeskai Fires, and that deck being the highest played in the field certainly helped, however with so much diversity the deck had to go through a plethora of other strategies to make it this far.
The other Simic Deck, Simic Ramp by Andrea Mangucci, has also looked borderline unbeatable this tournament so far. This deck plays out much differently than the flash version, by playing an elementals package to ramp into Finale of Devastation
, and End-Raze Forerunners
for some massive one turn kill potential late game. Despite all the diversity in the tournament, it is still looking like Simic could be the color to beat, but we will have to see after the top 8.
Simic Ramp by Andrea Mengucci
Main 60 cards (17 distinct)
Lands - 28
Side 15 cards (6 distinct)
Main 60 cards (17 distinct)
Lands - 28
Side 15 cards (6 distinct)
Main 60 cards (17 distinct)
| Creature (20) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.04€1.100.06 | |||
| $0.50€0.670.03 | |||
| $0.20€0.110.03 | |||
| $0.73€0.340.02 | |||
| $1.92€1.701.04 | |||
| $0.25€0.160.03 | |||
| $5.65€6.480.03 | |||
| Instant, Sorcery, Enchantment, Artifact (8) | |||
| $0.50€0.360.02 | |||
| $0.30€0.270.03 | |||
| $25.79€21.702.00 | |||
| Planeswalker (4) | |||
| $3.75€2.440.02 | |||
| Land (28) | |||
| $0.39€0.230.02 | |||
|
6
Island
|
|||
|
10
Forest
|
|||
| $0.52€0.600.02 | |||
| $5.32€3.880.03 | |||
| $16.43€15.090.17 | |||
Side 15 cards (6 distinct)
| $0.250.02 | |||
| $0.39€0.210.02 | |||
|
1
Negate
|
$0.25€0.090.04 | ||
| $0.40€0.430.18 | |||
| $0.27€0.220.04 | |||
| $0.23€0.110.03 |
For the rest of the field, we have Miguel Da Cruz Simoes and Piotr Glogowski running Jund Sacrifice, Chris Kvartek on Golgari Adventure and PVDDR on Jeskai Fires.
PVDDR must be feeling the least confident in the field right now, with 7 copies of Jeskai fires making day two and only 1 making the top 8. The decks worst matchup is against the Simic Decks, and with those representing half of the field the odds are not with him. However, he does benefit from a very fortuitious spot in the bracket, with his first matchup (Jund Sacrifice) being very winnable, and the potential to go up against it again the next round. PVDDR should be heavily rooting for Kannister over Seth Manfield in round one, and if he gets that result the door is open to make a run at the finals where anything can happen.
My personal favorite deck of the top 8 however is Chris Kvarteks Golgari Adventures. The man has been tweaking popular decks to have a faster tempo all year long, and this version of Golgari Adventure can beat you down fast. It is the closest thing to aggro we have in the top 8, and I think matches up extremely well with the flash decks, especially if he can get Edgewall Innkeeper going. The opening round matchup vs Andrea Mangucci could be one for the ages, with two great players and unique strategies facing off in a match that will be hard to predict and will position the winner for a very nice run.
MPL/Worlds
A sub theme in this tournament has been the race for MPL/Worlds spots. Although the entire Worlds field has not been decided yet, we have the MPL roster for next year! Here is the 24 that made it according to Ball Lightning PhD who has been falling all of this very closely on twitter!
Seth Manfield described Worlds this year as "The biggest Magic tournament of all time," and with the field not entirely decided yet that will be another story to pay close attention to today.
Predictions:
My predictions have been pretty terrible the last two MC's but that all changes today!
Round 1:
Glogowski beats Manfield - The access to three copies of Massacre girl can be key, and Korvold can grow to Hydroid Krasis size while matching the card draw easily. In a very close game, Glogowski comes out victorious.
PVDDR beats Simoes - PVDDR is the more experienced player and has a very close matchup where he is arguably favored. Give me the hall of famer
Dominguez beats Nelson - This match is a complete toss up, with two of the best players in an exact mirror. The winner will probably be whoever wins the coinflip, but ill take Dominguez on the basis that he has been unstoppable this year.
Kvartek beats Mangucci - In the most interesting match of the day in my opinion, give me the aggression of the Golgari deck over the late game of the Elementals.
Round 2:
Glogowski beats PVDDR - PVDDR's matchup won't be good enough to beat Jund two games in a row. Give me the top seed in Kannister.
Kvartek beats Dominguez - I think Kvartek should be favored in this matchup, with his card draw engine from Edgewall Innkeeper enough to mitigate the counters in the early game.
Round 3:
Kvartek beats Glogowski - Although I think Glogowski is probably favored in this matchup, sometimes you have to expect the unexpected in a big tournament. As a result, I am going with my gut and putting Kvartek into the finals!
Finals
Mangucci beats Kvartek - Yes that is right! Give me Andrea Mangucci to win his way all the way through the consolation bracket and get revenge in the finals against Kvartek. It is so tough to tell who is favored in this matchup, but for dramatic purposes i'll take Mangucci winning the trophy!
